Professional prognosticator EvaluatePharma recently released its
World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018 report, which projects prescription drug sales and R&D activity in the U.S. and abroad. (The report is free with site registration.) You’ll find predictions for the 50 best-selling U.S. drug products on page 25.
Below is my handy summary chart comparing the 2018 list with 2012’s top sellers. Since I last looked at these projections (in
Top Ten Drugs of 2016), the list has changed significantly. Highlights of the latest forecasts:
- The number of specialty drugs in the top 10 has dropped vs. the 2016 projections. In 2018, 6 of the 10 best-selling drugs by revenue are projected to be specialty drugs, compared with 3 drugs in 2010 and 5 in 2012.
- The 2018 top 10 U.S. drugs have projected total revenues of $39.7 billion, which will amount to only $2.1 billion more than the top 10 in 2012. Consequently, 2018’s top 10 will also account for a smaller industry share than that of their 2012 counterparts.
Tomorrow’s best-sellers are more likely to target smaller patient populations that have the blockbusters of the past, consistent with the market level projections that I discuss in
More Drug Trend Forecasts. Regardless of EvaluatePharma’s ultimate accuracy, it’s clear that the world is changing, so your commercial and channel strategies should change, too. Don't put off until tomorrow what you can do today. (Sorry, I meant to tell you that yesterday.)
Posted by Drug Channels Institute, an HMP Global company on Tuesday, August 13, 2013